Insights

Surging European EV Markets Present Opportunities

  • New electric vehicle sales in Europe keep climbing
  • Plug-in hybrids remain in favor in Italy and Spain
  • Incentives drive adoption while uneven charging infrastructure limits growth

New electric vehicle (EV) sales, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), keep growing in Europe. EV Volumes, part of JD Power, reveals 2,789,096 new EV passenger cars were sold between January and July 2026. This equates to year-over-year growth in Europe of 33.2%.

BEVs accounted for 68.1% of EV sales in Europe over the first seven months of 2026. This was up by 1.9 percentage points (pp) from the same period last year, when all-electric sales in Europe increased by 24.5%.

BEV sales growth in Europe picked up pace across January and July 2026, surging 37% year over year to 1,900,173 deliveries. This was helped by 50.8% and 51.8% rises in June and July, respectively.

Meanwhile, PHEVs saw sales growth stabilize. The powertrain posted a 25.7% year-over-year improvement in the first seven months of 2026, with 888,923 sales. Yet this was 0.2pp below the growth seen in the same period of 2025.

Growth Unaffected by Easing Targets

Growth comes despite relaxed CO2 emissions standards for cars and vans in the EU, which formed part of the Automotive Package presented by the European Commission in December 2025.

In the proposed revision of the Commission’s CO2 standards, carmakers will need to comply with a 90.0% tailpipe emissions reduction target in the EU. This is a reduction from the previous target of 100.0%. Therefore, new vehicle sales other than BEVs and hydrogen models could continue past 2035.

While still some way in the future, the 90.0% target will still affect carmaker investment, planning, and strategy for EVs in European markets.

Manufacturers are also allowed to meet the 2025 to 2027 CO₂ targets over a three-year average rather than annually. This provides flexibility for brands and relieves some regulatory pressure.

Meanwhile, a formal review of the UK’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate is ongoing and closes in October. This regulation outlines zero-emission sales requirements for brands active in the country.

The UK government has committed to reviewing the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes (VETS) Order, under which the ZEV mandate sits, by early 2027. The current ZEV trajectory and yearly targets could change, as well as the compliance flexibility available to carmakers.

These shifts signal a move away from a more linear transition toward EVs in Europe.

Big Five Dominate Europe’s EV Market

Europe’s five biggest automotive markets represented 66.3% of the continent’s overall new EV sales between January and July 2026. This was up 4.1pp from the first seven months of 2025. The big five include Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Spain.

Germany accounted for the largest number of new EV sales in Europe, at 23.0%, up 0.9pp year over year. The UK was second, with an 18.0% share of EV sales between January and July 2026. France was third with a 12.5% share, while Italy and Spain accounted for 6.6% and 6.2%, respectively.

Germany and the UK were also first and second in the isolated BEV and PHEV markets, respectively. France had the third-largest BEV market but only sold the fifth most PHEVs. Italy recorded the third largest volume of new PHEVs yet was not a BEV leader. This was the same for Spain’s BEV market, meanwhile it recorded the fourth-largest new PHEV total.

Europe’s Electric LCV Market

New electric light-commercial vehicle (LCV) sales also continued to rise year over year. However, the rate of growth appears to be slowing. A total of 130,481 units were delivered between January and July 2026, up 36.0%. This was 20.2pp down from the increase recorded in the same period of 2025.

BEVs held an even larger share of electric LCV volumes in Europe than in the passenger car market. The technology captured 86.6% of sales in the first seven months of the year, down 2.7pp year over year.

By country, the UK accounted for the most electric LCV sales in Europe. Yet its 18.9% share was not far ahead of Germany’s 17.3% hold in second or France’s 16.3% slice in third. The Netherlands and Spain were the fourth and fifth largest electric LCV markets, with 7.6% and 5.6% shares, respectively.

Soaring EV Growth in Italy

So far this year, Italy has recorded the greatest year-over-year EV sales growth of the European big five. 185,317 deliveries were recorded in the country between January and July 2026, up 77.1%.

“This year’s soaring EV sales are in part due to the delivery delay caused by the country’s previous incentive scheme, which was exhausted within 24 hours of being launched,” explained Edoardo Buffo, senior residual value and data analyst at JD Power Europe & Australia.

“Furthermore, this year’s spike in fuel prices has raised consumer awareness of the benefits of cars that can run exclusively on electricity. This is particularly the case if you can charge it at home and benefit from convenient electricity prices,” he noted.

Expanded EV Offering in Italy

Another factor behind Italy’s soaring EV growth is the arrival of new models and brands. With more models available to customers, the country’s EV market is likely to reach previously untapped buyer demographics.

“The EV offer in Italy is already quite extensive, and new Chinese players are continuing to enter the market. This further enriches the available range, as a significant share of their portfolios typically consists of EVs,” outlined Buffo.

“These models represent a more price-sensitive alternative. This allows the Chinese OEMs to appeal to the average Italian customer and benefit from available incentives,” he highlighted.

“Demand for BEVs remains limited at the moment and is mainly supported by the attractive list prices of some models and the incentives that were available last year. In contrast, PHEV demand is more evenly distributed across different models and is associated with a higher average list price.

“Nevertheless, depending on how long fuel prices remain elevated, demand is expected to stay above last year’s levels. This is especially true for PHEVs,” he commented.

Between January and July 2026, PHEV growth outpaced BEV growth, continuing a trend also observed in 2025. A total of 98,711 PHEVs took to the road, up 83.8% year over year. This was driven by three triple-digit increases in the first three months of 2026. PHEVs represented 53.3% of all EV sales.

“PHEVs show a more diversified sales mix compared to BEVs. A significant share of C-segment vehicles were among the best-selling PHEV models between January and June, UNRAE data showed,” said Buffo.

“This also reflects the strong appeal of this powertrain among companies and fleet operators, which are looking for an alternative to BEVs while still benefiting from tax advantages,” he added.

Small Segment BEVs in Italy

BEVs recorded a 70.0% rise in deliveries over the first seven months of 2026, with 86,606 new sales in Italy. However, unlike PHEVs, all-electric volumes were not as evenly distributed.

“BEV sales were mainly driven by A- and B-segment vehicles. They have attractive list prices and also benefited from last year’s purchase incentives. These segments have traditionally been popular in the Italian market, and this trend is reflected for this powertrain as well.

“According to UNRAE, four of the top five best-selling BEVs in the first seven months of 2026 belong to these segments. Together, they accounted for 41.4% of total BEV sales,” confirmed Buffo.

Uneven Regional Distribution

Italy’s EV market is, in part, characterized by an uneven distribution of EV charging infrastructure. According to Motus-E, Northern Italy accounted for 57% of the charging points installed in the country by 30 June 2026. Meanwhile, central Italy and Southern Italy had smaller shares of 20% and 23%, respectively.

“This uneven distribution reflects the broader economic landscape in Italy. New-car registrations in Northern Italy accounted for 54.2% of the country’s total between January and July, according to UNRAE. Central Italy made up 23% of overall volumes, while Southern Italy represented just 14.9%,” explained Buffo.

“Consequently, lower purchasing power leads consumers to favor other powertrains, resulting in reduced interest in EVs.

“Yet this year, the growth of BEV registrations in Southern Italy has been stronger than in the rest of the country. This elevated demand is driven by the availability of affordable models combined with purchase incentives. This makes BEVs particularly attractive to lower-income households,” confirmed Buffo.

Italy’s Electric LCV Struggles

Italy was the only one of the big five to post a year-over-year decline in electric LCV sales. Between January and July 2026, deliveries fell by 18.5% to 4,044 units. This was driven by a 56.3% slump in June.

“Electric LCVs are simply not appealing to workers and business owners. Electric passenger car sales are mainly driven by affordable small vehicles used in urban areas. They are purchased primarily by private customers and supported by incentives,” said Buffo.

“Purchasing a van serves a different purpose than purchasing a passenger car, and the appeal of the electric powertrain remains limited in this segment,” he outlined.

EV Bounce Back in France

In France, EV sales increased by 51.5% year over year in the first seven months of 2026. This marked a significant recovery from the 1.7% delivery decline in 2025.

“The current EV sales surge in France is linked to fiscal advantages. Although benefit-in-kind (BIK) regulation changed in favor of BEVs in early 2025, companies did not directly switch to the technology,” explained Ludovic Percier, senior residual value analyst at JD Power Europe & Australia.

The other factor is social leasing, which has supported roughly 50,000 vehicles in each of its second and third rounds of funding, according to France’s Ministry for Ecological Transition. Its third round has been open since July 2026, as confirmed by the French government.

“For some models, a significant portion of their new-car registrations have come thanks to this scheme,” said Percier.

“However, social leasing also has a notable impact on the used-car market. It is already converting price-sensitive used-car buyers to new-car buyers, due to preferential offers under the scheme. Consequently, this decreases the number of buyers in the used-car market.

“Furthermore, it is also lowering used-car prices. The scheme will likely create an oversupply in the used-car market over the next three years, in turn harming residual values (RVs),” he commented.

PHEVs Continued Decline in France

France’s EV growth was hampered by a 1.7% decline in new PHEV sales during the first seven months of 2026. This equated to 56,324 deliveries.

Yet this did signal an improvement from its 30.9% year-over-year drop seen during the same period last year. PHEVs made up just 16.1% of France’s EV sales between January and July 2026.

“BEVs are becoming the sole EV choice for new-car buyers in France. A couple of years ago, PHEVs were the best powertrain for fleets, due to fiscal advantages.

“However, since February 2025, only BEVs benefit from a BIK deductibility of 70.0% up to a limit of €4,582 per year, according to Arval Mobility Observatory. This is provided they have obtained ADEME‘s eco-score certification,” Percier confirmed.

France’s Wider BEV Offer

BEV sales improved by 69.1% year over year in the first seven months of 2026, reaching 293,096 units. July was a standout month, with deliveries soaring by 123.1%. This was preceded by a 93.5% uptick in June and a 92.1% surge in May.

“France is pushing consumers toward BEVs with an exhaustive list of financial advantages and regulatory constraints. This includes the coup de pouce véhicules particuliers électriques incentive scheme, fiscal BIK advantages, social leasing, and CAFE regulations,” highlighted Percier.

“This is leading the country to a significant increase in new BEV models on offer. Since January 2024, a total of 118 new BEVs have begun selling in France, EV Volumes data shows. This includes models that sold below 250 units in 2023, as these can likely be attributed to self-registrations by carmakers.

“So, there is financial help and constraints, but also a wider offer in many segments and brands. Even existing brands in France have been heavily developing their BEV portfolio since 2024.

“This is especially the case for French brands that were focused on mid-size BEV vehicles. A wider offer means a wider number of customers that can be reached, alongside an increasing interest from fleet customers,” he commented.

Electric LCV Acceleration

Electric LCVs are also seeing strong growth this year in France. Between January and July, 21,218 new electric models were delivered, up 57.5% year over year.

“In France, electric LCVs are mainly for last-kilometer trips. Yet not all professionals are using LCVs for that kind of purpose and are instead mainly focused on postal services and package deliveries,” said Percier.

“Meanwhile, if you are a trade professional, you need to drive long distances. However, you also need to keep many tools in your vehicle, which lowers the real-life range. Furthermore, electric LCV list prices are expensive compared to diesel models,” he noted.

Incentive-Driven Sales in Germany

EV sales in Germany increased by 38.7% year over year between January and July, with 640,706 new models taking to the road. This marked a slight slowdown from 2025’s 50.0% delivery surge.

In May, Germany reintroduced EV incentives, available for BEVs and PHEVs. Backed by a €3 billion budget, it will subsidize new EV purchases and leases until 2029. However, the grants available to PHEVs are lower than those for all-electric models.

Taxable household income and family size also determine the amount of funding available for each applicant. The program applies retroactively to registrations made since the start of the year.

“The EV demand for new cars is mainly driven by subsidies. At the same time, demand for used EVs has been growing due to high fuel prices,” outlined Ina Gronemeyer, cluster head of valuations for Germany, Austria and Switzerland at JD Power Europe & Australia.

“Chinese brands seem to be the primary beneficiaries of the new EV incentives. This is partly due to more aggressive pricing and discount policies than established OEMs,” she explained.

According to the Center of Automotive Management, between January and July 2026, Chinese brands represented 6.2% of new-car market deliveries in Germany. This was up 2pp from the same period of last year.

“Chinese carmakers compete through strong value for money, offering competitive prices, extensive features, and solid quality. Their key challenge is to build brand recognition and grow sales without heavy discounting and pushing volume,” said Gronemeyer.

“Crucially, both of these could damage RVs. They must also stand out against already established OEMs and other Chinese brands,” she highlighted.

BEVs Charge Forward

BEVs made up 69.7% of all new EV sales in Germany during the first seven months of the year. This was an increase of 5.6pp compared to January to July 2025. All-electric model deliveries soared by 50.6% year over year to 446,380 units.

PHEVs, on the other hand, saw a slowdown in growth. After a 62.8% sales increase in 2025, the technology recorded a 17.3% rise between January and July 2026. A total of 194,326 PHEVs were delivered in this period.

“Despite slower market growth, PHEVs remain strategically important for OEMs due to their positive impact on fleet CO₂ emissions. Improvements in electric range are making PHEVs more attractive, and they continue to serve as an important transition technology for customers who don’t want to drive a BEV,” Gronemeyer said.

Stricter Targets Boost Electric LCV Growth

Electric LCVs recorded a 69.9% sales surge in Germany during the first seven months of 2026, with 22,616 deliveries.

“Several factors are driving electric LCV growth. This includes stricter fleet CO₂ targets and a significantly broader range of EV models,” commented Kai Seidemann, senior residual value analyst at JD Power Europe & Australia.

“The growing importance of fleet emissions within corporate sustainability objectives is also a factor. In addition, manufacturer incentives and their continued commitment to electrification are further supporting the transition,” he confirmed.

Spain’s EV Balancing Act

In Spain, new EV sales surged by 35.7% year over year between January and July. However, this did mark a significant slowdown in growth, following 2025’s breakout 97.4% increase. A total of 172,254 EVs were sold in Spain in the first seven months of 2026.

Like Italy, Spain has a relatively even mix of BEVs and PHEVs in its EV market. PHEVs took a 55.9% share of EV sales between January and July, up by just 0.8pp year over year.

Compared to January to July 2025, PHEV volumes grew by 37.8% to 96,267 units. BEVs recorded a 33.3% uptick to 75,987 deliveries.

“Due to continued EV sales growth in Spain, carmakers are facing a challenging dual-operating reality. Brands must stay on top of intensified price competition and localized production overcapacity, while navigating strict regulatory requirements,” commented Juan Andrés Blázquez, senior RV analyst, JD Power Europe & Australia.

“This dynamic puts carmakers in a tricky position. They need to cater to what Spanish consumers want to buy, which is mostly PHEVs at the moment. However, they must still push BEV volumes, which are crucial in meeting regulatory targets,” he added.

Another similarity between Spain and Italy’s EV markets is the regional disparity of charging infrastructure. Despite national growth, charge points are still concentrated in four urban areas.

As of 1 June 2026, Catalonia, Madrid, Andalusia, and Valencia represent 59.0% of Spain’s public charging infrastructure, according to AEDIVE. This regional imbalance is a key barrier to country-wide EV adoption.

EV Incentive Shift

“Meanwhile, the rollout of Spain’s Plan Auto+ subsidy scheme marks a change in Spain’s EV incentives,” Blázquez stated.

Backed by €400 million, the scheme replaces the regionally administered MOVES III program, as reported by electrive. Grant amounts are weighted toward BEVs, lower-priced models, and vehicles or batteries manufactured in the EU.

“Elsewhere, Chinese brands are expanding their share of Spain’s EV sector. If this expansion continues, combined with a potential downturn in manufacturing output and investment from European OEMs in Spain, it will fundamentally transform the country’s EV market.

“The country would be pushed more quickly toward affordable, mass-market vehicles, as the national supply chain would see a significant shift. In turn, Spain would turn away from premium, low-volume EVs,” projected Blázquez.

In the electric LCV market, sales rose by 39.9% year over year to 7,302 units. However, growth has slowed compared to the 109.1% increase seen at the same point last year.

“This slowdown in growth is primarily driven by bureaucratic transitions, infrastructure limitations, and fiscal exhaustion among small- and medium-sized enterprises,” noted Blázquez.

UK’s ZEV Mandate Impact

EV sales in the UK continued to improve during the first seven months of 2026, with a 32.2% rise between January and July to 501,822 deliveries.

Of the two EV technologies, PHEVs saw a greater year-over-year growth of 39.4%. 173,572 new models were delivered. Yet, BEVs accounted for 65.4% of all EV sales in the UK, following a 28.7% improvement to 328,250 units.

New BEV sales growth is of particular importance in the UK, due to the country’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. This requires 33.0% of manufacturers’ new-car sales to come from either BEVs or fuel-cell vehicles in 2026.

“BEV demand in the UK continues to grow at a healthy double-digit rate, but not quickly enough to meet the current trajectory of ZEV Mandate targets,” highlighted Jayson Whittington, regional head of valuations for the UK, Nordics and Australia at JD Power Europe & Australia.

The SMMT warned that manufacturers are investing heavily and discounting deeply to stimulate demand. However, they highlighted that compliance costs rise and RVs come under pressure when the mandate’s targets outpace natural market growth.

“OEM BEV strategies remain closely tied to ZEV Mandate requirements, with non-compliance risking significant penalties. As a result, BEV supply may exceed underlying demand, creating a push-driven market. To improve mandate compliance, some manufacturers may even adjust product planning by reducing internal-combustion engine and hybrid volumes in favor of higher BEV sales,” explained Whittington.

“A relaxation of the mandate would be unlikely to alter OEMs’ long-term plans, but it could ease short-term compliance pressures. This would allow demand to develop more naturally and reduce the need for manufacturers to push BEV volumes into the market,” he projected.

An Increasing Market Footprint

The UK does not place countervailing import tariffs or voluntary price undertaking offers on BEVs built in China. So, the market has become a preferable option for Chinese brands looking to enter the region. These carmakers have already seen considerable growth in the UK.

“Chinese EV brands have gained significant expertise through rapid growth in their domestic market. This enables them to develop competitive technology and strong value-for-money appeal for the UK market,” commented Whittington.

“However, they face challenges around brand recognition, retail networks and maintaining residual values. Building consumer trust while competing with established manufacturers remains a key challenge. However, to date, they seem to have been well received by UK consumers.

“Established brands are responding to the expansion of Chinese EV brands by emphasizing their brand heritage, trusted dealer networks and comprehensive service support.

“They are also increasingly competing on price, using discounts, finance incentives and attractive leasing offers to defend market share and maintain EV sales momentum,” stated Whittington.

New electric LCV sales in the UK grew by 30.6% between January and July 2026, to 24,598 units. July was an especially positive month, with an 85.6% year-over-year surge.

“The key driver in electric LCV sales growth is that they are increasingly being seen as fit for purpose. Ranges, overall capabilities, and total cost of ownership now meet the requirements of many fleets,” Whittington concluded.

Author: Tom Hooker, content specialist at JD Power Europe & Australia. Proofing: Tom Geggus, media lead at JD Power Europe & Australia.

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