Strengthen Automotive Borrower Loyalty and Retention

Economic-impact events affecting Europe’s fleet and finance automotive industry have become more frequent Engaging in forecast scenario analysis rather than relying on a singular base case has become the new normal Absolute values of battery-electric vehicles sit above petrol powertrains in three major European used-car markets The fleet and finance industry faces a period of high uncertainty in Europe. Geopolitics and trade are increasingly strained, Chinese OEMs are rapidly expanding into the region, and major fleet suppliers are consolidating. Electrification in Europe remains uneven too. Proposed clean corporate vehicles regulation could introduce national zero- and low-emission registration targets for large companies. In this era of rapid change, the future is hard to predict. For fleets, this means adaptation and flexibility must be built into strategies. A major part of planning is maximizing money recovery when vehicles are de-fleeted. To do this effectively, residual value (RV) managers weave necessary levels of uncertainty into their forecast and optimize vehicle values at the remarketing point. Additionally, comparing forecasts to remarketing results and adapting accordingly is key. How can this be done effectively when the future looks so blurry? Furthermore, is the crystal ball brighter for some powertrains than others? These topics were discussed in detail during two sessions at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. Increasingly Frequent Crises “As an industry, we have become significantly more resilient over the past 10 years. For some, this came as a bit of a surprise, but a positive one,” commented Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director professional services at JD Power Europe & Australia. Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director professional services, JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. “Working through the more frequent crisis-moments that companies have endured, it gave them some strength and resilience. They are taking a more proactive stance, anticipating more and acting more decisively,” he outlined. Engelskirchen highlighted that economic-impact events affecting the automotive industry have become more frequent. Geopolitical and trade tensions, plus EV policy uncertainty, are causing fleets to adopt a more responsive and flexible mindset. This climate is not expected to change over the next couple of years. “We are getting used to accepting ups and downs as the new normal,” noted Engelskirchen. Differing Fleet Impact These crises have varying impacts on RVs. For example, in Spain, trade values expressed as a percentage of the original list price (%RVs) for 36-month-old cars at 60,000 km dropped dramatically during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Engelskirchen pointed out that during the COVID-19 pandemic, RVs rose across major European markets before entering a period of normalization. The impact of these events can differ substantially between powertrains too. Engelskirchen showed that in Spain, petrol’s bump in value retention rates during Dieselgate were bigger than diesel’s %RV decline. Analysing these outcomes can help when forecasting the impact of arising economic-impact events. “The past and current performance of used car markets remains a very important bellwether of future RV development. There are many different influencing factors for RVs, and some of these will have an impact that is very much informed by the past. For example, lifecycle depreciation and the role of the brand are factors that have been quantified and analysed for many years,” explained Engelskirchen. Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director professional services, JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. Additional definitive examples include GDP and inflation. If either rise, this generally causes RVs to increase. Conversely, if used-car supply, new-car price pressure, OEM push dynamics, or interest rates rise, RVs generally drop. Fleet Scenario Analysis So, with economic-impact event frequency higher than usual, tying forecasts to one set of assumptions could leave fleets vulnerable. Instead, having multiple forecast scenarios can help companies prepare for sudden market changes. These scenarios differ from base cases, which are the forecasts carrying the most confidence or probability behind them. “Scenario analysis needs breadth without losing relevance. Look too narrowly and you reinforce your existing worldview. Look too broadly and the scenarios become generic. The art is finding the right balance,” explained Engelskirchen. Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director professional services, JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. For example, a fleet could use an EV transition disruption scenario, which they associate with a moderate probability. In this situation, government and industrial policy becomes less supportive of EVs, while buyers and owners adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Compared to the base case, this scenario would have a positive impact on internal-combustion engines (ICE) and full and mild hybrids. However, it would have a negative impact on battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). “There is no limit to the number of scenarios a bank can have. However, scenarios that closely mirror the base case are less critical. More importantly, the exercise exposes vulnerabilities in the base-case forecast itself,” said Engelskirchen. “Scenario analysis is also very much influenced by the bank’s fleet portfolio risk profile. If a portfolio’s exposure is high, both number and type of scenarios they look at may differ,” added Christian Schneider, director analytics at JD Power Europe & Australia. Therefore, a fleet’s bespoke composition and affects which forecast scenarios will be relevant. For example, a fleet with a low share of electric models would be less concerned about a scenario that disrupts EV RVs. Fleet Powertrain Forecasts As companies make the electric transition at varying speeds, understanding how different powertrains are expected to retain value is important. This can help determine future fleet composition, replacement cycles, and risk allocation. During a panel at Fleet Europe Days 2026, Schneider analysed the projected absolute RVs of BEV and petrol C-segment SUVs. He explained that by December 2028, BEVs are expected to see higher values on average in this segment than petrol models in the big five European used-car markets. This widely aligns with current RV performance. In Germany, Spain and the UK, absolute BEV RVs sat above petrol models in October 2026, according to JD Power Residual Value Intelligence. In Italy, BEVs were marginally ahead by €135, while they trailed petrol cars in France by €1,497. Meanwhile, absolute PHEV RVs currently sit between BEVs and petrol models in most countries. “In terms of the outlook, we see PHEVs performing worse than BEVs. This is because they are currently pushed more in the bigger markets via incentives for fleets,” noted Schneider. Christian Schneider, director analytics at JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. Schneider also highlighted that Chinese OEMs have competitive technology and pricing in the PHEV sector. These models are not currently affected by the European Commission’s countervailing duties, which only apply to BEVs. However, the EU will limit the number of hybrids, including PHEVs, imported from China, The Guardian reported. The annual quota of 350,000 vehicles is expected to come into force in December. “Competition and vehicle capability are increasing substantially in the PHEV market. The powertrain type may receive a second wind on the back of better range and more affordable prices,” highlighted Engelskirchen. Powertrain Forecast Reliability Schneider analysed the forecast reliability of BEV RVs compared to petrol models. He outlined that for BEVs, knowing specifications such as battery chemistry, capacity, and charging times is essential for accurate BEV forecasts at a model and powertrain average level. Schneider also noted the importance of understanding how models and technology will change over the next few years. This can help show which launches add RV pressure on current vehicles and which do not. Christian Schneider, director analytics at JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. For mass market powertrains today, including BEVs and increasingly PHEVs, there is plenty of data to build solid forecasts. Challenges to current forecasts include the risk of changes in industrial policy around EVs plus the emerging competition in that space, particularly from China. In turn, EV forecasts are somewhat more exposed to these challenges. However, ICE and hybrid models are also interconnected and therefore affected by these challenges. AI and Fleet Forecasting During the panel, Schneider was asked about the overall reliability of RV forecasting compared to five years ago. He explained that forecasting models are now fed richer datasets and that the industry has learned a lot from recent crises. Looking five years into the future, the role of forecasting may also notably change. Christian Schneider, director analytics at JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. “Most companies dealing with forecasting are aware that data is key and are collecting more of it. I think this points towards more reliable forecasts. On the other hand, economic-impact events are becoming more common. So, you need to be more prepared,” said Schneider. As companies become better equipped from a data perspective to prepare scenarios, the increasing capability of AI presents further opportunities. However, this also comes with inherent risks. “AI will play a bigger role in building statistical models. It could also help define forecast scenarios a little bit better. However, I think we must be careful, especially when we speak about completely AI-based forecasting models, that they do not get a black box. When a forecast turns out to be wrong, it is important to understand what exactly went into that forecast and which assumptions were used,” warned Schneider. Engelskirchen also emphasised the value of providing context for both current and forecast RVs even on an individual model trim level. This can be done by providing transparency around ongoing assumptions. Navigating the Never Normal Overall, fleets are now learning to navigate the “Never Normal”. This was a term coined by keynote speaker Peter Hinssen, who gave the event’s first presentation. Throughout the summit, the key theme of uncertainty remained. However, the takeaway was not that creating plans or forecasts are now redundant. Instead, strategy should be able to adapt quickly yet purposefully to disruptions. Understanding the assumptions underpinning base case forecasts and their reliability alongside multiple probable scenarios can help fleets thrive when the next change hits.

This content previously appeared on the Autovista24 website. How will new-car markets transform over the course of 2026? Plus, what is happening with used-car supply and demand in Europe? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus finds out in the latest Automotive Update podcast. In this episode, Autovista24 reviews the latest JD Power webinar, which explored Europe’s new-car outlook. Plus, a look into the latest residual value (RV) trends in the continent’s used-car market. Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music. Outlook for European automotive markets This week, JD Power hosted its latest webinar: Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, Policy, and EV Adoption. The session covered Europe’s new-car market outlook from 2026 to 2040 across multiple powertrains. Panellists also delved into the bloc’s diverging electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the factors behind it. Plus, the webinar reviewed upcoming technologies and emerging brands expanding across the continent. Attendees were asked how much they thought Europe’s new-car market would grow, or shrink, by the end of this year. 40% of respondents expected a year-on-year improvement between 0% and 2% compared to 2025. This matched the latest EV Volumes forecast, which projected a 0.2% increase in its March update. However, this was reduced from the 1.5% growth forecast in its December report. The March update also projected overall growth for European light-vehicle sales, which includes new cars and light-commercial vehicles. In 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% is forecast, down from 1.7% in the previous report. The panel also discussed varying EV adoption rates in the bloc. They identified key structural differences that are either limiting or assisting plug-in uptake. Furthermore, the experts showed how, in some instances, EVs are closing the price gap to internal-combustion engine models. This comes as the choice of small EVs on the new-car market continues to widen. Positivity for used-car markets? JD Power experts forecast year-on-year RV declines across European used-car markets in the latest Monthly Market Update. In Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK, values are expected to decline by the end of 2026. However, these drops are expected to be slight. A drop is also projected across all observed markets in 2027. This is the case in 2028 as well, except for Italy, with marginal growth forecasted. RVs became inflated during the COVID-19 pandemic when supply was low, but demand was high. As these drivers balanced out, values underwent a period of normalisation. In March 2026, the active-market volume index (AMVI) for 24-to-48-month-old used cars showed year-on-year growth in every observed market. When compared to February 2026, only the UK suffered a marginal downturn, with a slight 1.1% dip in supply. The sales-volume index (SVI) of 24-to-48-month-old cars also increased compared with March 2025. This trend occurred in six of the seven observed markets, except for Italy, which recorded a 1.1% decline. Month-on-month results were more mixed, as single-digit drops were recorded in France, Italy and the UK. If supply continues to outpace demand, RVs will face increased pressure, with more units available and fewer potential buyers.

This content previously appeared on the Autovista24 website. With model debuts and the European Car of the Year award, the Brussels Motor Show is an important automotive event. Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry presents highlights from this year’s show. The Brussels Motor Show has grown in stature in recent years. Since the doors closed on the Geneva International Motor Show (GIMS) in Switzerland, automotive brands have shifted their focus to the Belgian event. As the first automotive event of 2026, the Brussels Motor Show also provided a look at potential upcoming market trends. Talks of fresh partnerships, new brands, plus continued fleet electrification highlighted Europe’s developing automotive market. Autovista24 looks at a selection of new models and interviews the winners of the European Car of the Year 2026.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJhAc0V5cTI Plenty to see at Brussels Motor Show The halls at the Brussels Expo were packed with carmakers, many bringing new or refreshed models to display. This included the Kia EV2, a new battery-electric vehicle (BEV) which completes the Korean brand’s EV line-up. By adding a small city-car model to its range, the company can cater to many different drivers. Kia also introduced an expanded GT model range, including the EV3 GT, EV4 Hatchback GT and EV5 GT. Opel used the show to reveal the new Astra, with an improved ‘Vizor’ headlight profile. This features an illuminated badge sitting central to new lighting strips. The Stellantis Brand also redesigned the interior to make it more comfortable. Subaru arrived at the event with two BEVs, the e-Outback and the Uncharted. Both cars feature all-wheel drive, keeping the brand’s offroad credentials intact. Mitsubishi used the show to highlight its new range, as it makes a European comeback. Models included the ASX, the Eclipse Cross, the Grandis and the Outlander PHEV. With the brand working in partnership with Renault, it will be hoping to re-establish a foothold in the European market. Another brand that will be working with Renault is Ford, which confirmed two new small cars will arrive in 2028. The carmaker brought its Ranger plug-in hybrid (PHEV), alongside a mix of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles. Central to this was a remote-control car racing track, with drivers able to race using simulation rigs. Who won European Car of the Year 2026? The Brussels Motor Show is also the new home of the European Car of the Year awards. A shortlist of seven new models was judged by automotive journalists from across Europe, with points awarded to each. This year, the Citroen e-C5 Aircross, Dacia Bigster, Fiat Grande Panda, Kia EV4, Mercedes-Benz CLA, Renault 4 and Skoda Elroq made the shortlist. Of these, judges awarded the Mercedes-Benz CLA the most points, giving it the 2026 title. This was the first time the German carmaker won European Car of the Year since 1974. The result also broke a two-year winning streak for Renault. It saw its Scenic take the title in 2023, and the Renault 5 in 2024. ‘It really means a lot to me, and also the Mercedes-Benz team, many hundreds and thousands of people who worked to make this car happen. It is a great reward to get this trophy from journalists across the whole of Europe, especially with many countries voting the CLA in first place,’ Oliver Löcher, vice president, overall vehicle integration at Mercedes-Benz, told Autovista24. ‘In some aspects, the CLA is a pivotal car. It is the first on our new compact platform, on which we will now roll out derivatives, like the GLB, which we launched at Brussels. It is also the first car with our latest generation e-drive, featuring 800-volt, high-efficiency fast charging. It is also the platform for our new MBO operating system. The CLA is, therefore, the frontrunner of a new generation of Mercedes-Benz cars,’ he added. ‘This year will see a lot of new-car launches from ourselves, making it a very exciting and busy year. But for now, we have the CLA, and I am very happy to see it win the European Car of the Year,’ Löcher concluded. Awards come to Brussels Motor Show The European Car of the Year award continues to be coveted by carmakers. This was clear in the reaction of the Mercedes-Benz team, with celebrations continuing throughout the event. ‘Even though the European Car of the Year award has been running since 1964, it is still very relevant. For consumers, today they face a lot of new technologies, and even new brands that were not heard of some years ago,’ commented Søren W. Rasmussen, president of the jury at the European Car of the Year. ‘This means they need guidance, and the Award winner, and its finalists, all help guide consumers directly to the best cars in the market. It is, therefore, very important for carmakers to have this prize,’ he added. The European Car of the Year award was a staple of the Geneva International Motor Show. But moving to the Brussels Motor Show has allowed the award to provide a full year of benefits for the winner and the finalists. Yet while the Mercedes-Benz team celebrate winning the 2026 prize, attention has already turned to the 2027 award. ‘We now start looking into the cars which can be candidate cars for the prize next year. As we walk around this exhibition, we can see already now there are some very good cars which will be definitely on the long list, and may make the shortlist for the end of 2026,’ concluded Rasmussen.

This content previously appeared on the Autovista24 website. With many European used-car markets observing residual value (RV) declines during August, what comes next? Autovista Group editors plot their expectations with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus. RV developments trended towards stagnation and decline across many European used-car markets during August. On average, the absolute trade value of a 36-month-old car at 36,000km fell month on month in Austria, France, Italy, Switzerland and the UK. The only markets to avoid this fate were Spain and Germany. They saw stagnation at 0% and 0.1% growth, respectively. Compared with August 2024, absolute RVs saw an improved performance, with only Italy, Switzerland, and the UK recording declines. These markets also saw the three lowest levels of year-on-year new-car list price growth. As the cost of a new car increases, more consumers may turn to the used-car market as an alternative. This increase in demand stokes absolute RVs, with more money exchanged for models. However, when presented as a percentage of new-car list price (%RV), values saw a steeper and more consistent decline. Compared with July, values fell across all recorded markets apart from Spain, which saw a marginal increase from 55.8% to 56%. Year on year, %RVs fell across all observed markets. This ranged from a short drop of 1.8 percentage points (pp) in Germany to a 5pp tumble in Switzerland. So, will these year-on-year decreases continue towards the end of 2025, and on into 2026 and 2027? Autovista Group editors outline their regional expectations. Slight RV decline in Austria ‘The sales-volume index (SVI) in Austria rose notably in August, increasing by 7.2% compared to July. However, it still recorded a 2.6% decline year-on-year, indicating lingering market challenges,’ commented Robert Madas, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations. The active-market volume index (AMVI) for two-to-four-year-old passenger cars followed a downward trend. It fell by 3.6% month-on-month and 9.4% compared to August 2024. This suggests a continued contraction in supply within this age bracket. The average time to sell a used car decreased slightly by 0.4 days to 66.8 days. Full hybrids (HEVs) showed a significant improvement, making them the fastest-selling powertrain, taking 56.9 days to sell on average. This was followed by diesel vehicles at 60.2 days, petrol vehicles at 66.4 days, and by plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 78.1 days. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) continued to take the longest time to sell at 79.3 days. The %RVs of a 36-month-old car at 60,000km declined slightly to 48.1% in August. This marks a 0.3pp drop from July and a 2.2pp decrease year-on-year. HEVs retained the highest trade value at 52.8%, followed by petrol cars at 50.4%. Then came diesel models with 48.5% and PHEVs with 45.6%. BEVs held the lowest %RV once again, at 38.4%. ‘Looking ahead, %RVs are expected to stabilise gradually until the end of the year,’ Madas said. ‘Forecasts suggest a 0.9% increase by the end of 2025 compared to December 2024, followed by a 0.7% decline in 2026, and a 0.6% decrease in 2027.’ France feels RV fall ‘France saw RVs begin to fall slightly in August. Higher list prices and lower absolute trade rates weighed on value retention,’ highlighted Ludovic Percier, Autovista Group’s senior RV analyst for France. Since the beginning of 2025, average days to sell have remained stable across all powertrains. Compared to August 2024, it now takes less time to sell a used car. The summer usually sees a more active market, especially during June and July, with August being slightly quieter. Absolute petrol RVs increased marginally in the 30 days to 6 August, defying a much larger trend. These vehicles are still in demand on the used-car market, even though smaller new volumes are being sold. Diesel values fell slightly, while stock days were shorter compared with July’s report. The Hyundai Tucson was the fastest-selling model across the entire used-car market, as well as within the diesel and HEV categories. HEVs remain the fastest-selling used powertrain in France. However, the powertrain’s absolute RVs dropped compared to July, as the technology features in more expensive models. However, these cars do not hold their value as well as their more affordable stablemates. More suffering for PHEVs PHEVs have continued to suffer. Used-car buyers are not willing to pay the comparatively higher prices. Now, as the range of these cars grows, list prices have increased across almost all brands. The supply and demand of these models is still imbalanced. Previously, many PHEVs were sold to fleets on the back of fiscal advantages. However, private used-car buyers are not interested in paying a higher price for these models. The SVI for PHEVs dropped by 14.2% month on month and 7.7% year on year. Compared with 12 months ago, the powertrain’s list prices increased by €5,101. However, absolute values remained stable, while %RVs fell by 4.3pp. BEVs continue to see the lowest %RVs at 36.1%, down from last month and last year. Tesla had the two fastest-selling used BEVs with the Model Y and Model 3. These cars are now relatively cheap considering their range and segment. Both the new and used-car markets are suffering from overcrowding. Registrations of new cars will see a push from fiscal incentives for fleets, while internal-combustion engines are penalised. ‘This will mean even more models will hit the used-car market, increasing oversupply,’ Percier explained. ‘Social leasing will only exacerbate this situation further when it is reintroduced in September.’ Germany sees RV stability Following a decline in July, used-car demand in Germany increased significantly in August. The SVI increased by 14% month on month. This indicates a modest recovery in market activity despite a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. The AMVI for two-to-four-year-old passenger cars grew slightly. The metric rose by 2% month on month but still reflects a 6.5% decline from one year prior. The average number of days needed to sell a used car in August was 59.1 days. This was a slight improvement of 0.5 days compared to July, but 1.2 days longer than in August 2024. PHEVs sold the fastest at 56 days, closely followed by HEVs at 56.4 days. Diesel models took slightly longer to sell at 58.8 days, followed by petrol cars at 59.5 days. BEVs took the longest amount of time to leave dealerships at 61.5 days. %RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km remained unchanged from July, with a %RV of 48.3%, down 1.8pp year on year. Petrol cars led the market with a %RV of 49.9%. Then came diesel cars at 49.3% and HEVs at 48.9%, followed by PHEVs at 43.3%. BEVs again retained the lowest level of value at 37%. ‘Although RVs have recently stabilised in Germany, the level is significantly lower than in previous years, and demand remains weak. Therefore, RVs can be expected to remain under pressure,’ stated Madas. By the end of 2025, %RVs are forecast to decrease by 2.7% when compared with December 2024. Pressure will probably ease in 2026, with RVs forecasted to suffer a smaller decline of 1.4%. Less price pressure in Spain Far from slowing down during the summer season, the Spanish new-car market continued to grow in July. Registrations were up 17.1% year on year, translating to a 14.3% increase in the year to date. Aided by the Reinicia Auto + plan, sales of new electric vehicles (EVs), including BEVs and PHEVs, have grown. The powertrain grouping saw registrations increase by 154.9% year on year in July. In the year-to-date, EVs made up 17.4% of Spain’s new-car market. ‘The used-car market also continued to grow, just not to the same extent as the new-car market,’ said Ana Azofra, Autovista Group’s head of valuations and insights, Spain. Year on year, transactions increased by 5.8% in July and 5.2% in the year to date. There was more positive news as a significant number of younger used models changed hands. Sales of models less than 12 months old increased by 16% in July. Meanwhile, those between 12 and 36 months saw transactions climb by 15.7%. This rejuvenation of supply has a positive effect on fleet sustainability. It also benefits the professional domain, which accounts for most of the transactions involving cars of this age. ‘This supply boosts the used-car market,’ Azofra highlighted. With an offer volume 42.3% lower than in August 2024, stock days fell, and prices felt less pressure. So, absolute RVs remained stable, still 2.1% higher than one year ago. A typical used petrol car at 36 months and 60,000km, sold between professionals for an average of €17,728 in August. It was also an encouraging month for diesel vehicles, which still account for over half of all used-car sales. The powertrain’s stock days fell compared with July, and its absolute RVs improved month on month and year on year. Supply slump in Switzerland ‘After a marginal decline in July, used-car demand in Switzerland fell more sharply in August,’ Madas outlined. The SVI dropped by 8.7% compared to July. Yet, year-on-year, the SVI was up by 7.4%. The AMVI declined by 1.6% compared to July, indicating a cooling in used car supply. The supply volume of passenger cars in the 24-to-48-month-old age bracket slumped by 9.3% compared to August 2024. ‘The average RV of a 36-month-old car at 60,000km remained stable at 42.4%, unchanged from July,’ he added. ‘This was also down from the 47.4% recorded in August 2024.’ HEVs retained the most value in August by far at 47%. Then came petrol cars at 43.9%, diesel models at 41.8% and PHEVs at 39.9%. BEVs continued to be the worst-performing powertrain in terms of value retention. All-electric cars held only 36% of their original list price after 36 months and 60,000km. The average number of days needed to sell a used car improved in August, falling to 73.5 days. This was 3.7 days faster than July and 5.2 days quicker than one year ago. Diesel cars sold fastest at 70.9 days, followed by petrol models at 71.6 days, HEVs at 76.2 days and BEVs at 76.5 days. Meanwhile, PHEVs needed the most time to sell at 83 days on average. A trend of relatively stable supply and low demand will continue as various uncertainties shroud 2025. Therefore, %RVs are expected to decrease in the coming years, but at a slower pace. By the end of 2025, %RVs are expected to decrease by 5% compared to December 2024. In 2026, a lower year-on-year drop of 1.5% is expected. RV drop recorded in the UK According to August’s Monthly Market Dashboard, the average absolute RV for a 36-month-old car in the UK dipped slightly to £15,187. This was down 1.8% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year. ‘%RVs also declined to 48%, reflecting a 2.4pp drop compared to August 2024,’ stated Jayson Whittington, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations, UK. ‘Conversely, the average list price rose to £31,652, representing a 4.3% increase year-on-year.’ Market activity showed positive momentum, with the SVI indicating that 10.6% more cars were sold in August than in July. Meanwhile, the AMVI displayed a 4% uptick in the number of cars advertised by dealers. Interestingly, 26.7% more cars were available compared to August 2024. Cars sold at a faster rate in August, with average days to sell falling to 35.9 days, 1.4 days faster than in July. This was perhaps due to the increased level of stock on offer, with consumers gaining access to a wider range of cars. All fuel types benefited from this faster sales rate. BEVs led the way, selling 4.1 days faster than in July, at an impressive 33.7 days. ‘Overall, it appears that retail activity shows resilience. Dealers will be pleased that stock availability is reasonably positive. Although RVs declined by a modest amount, there is plenty to be optimistic about as the end of summer approaches,’ concluded Whittington.