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2026 Sales Data Shows Shrewd Navigation of Supply Chain and Affordability Challenges Retail sales tracking closely with forecast OEMs have shifted deliveries toward higher-margin vehicle segments, lifting transaction prices Disciplined inventory management is supporting pricing while limiting incentive growth While it isn’t time to don party hats and start tossing confetti, there is no doubt that the auto industry has been able to negotiate the slings and arrows of 2026 much more nimbly than might have been anticipated. A potentially toxic combination of historic supply chain challenges, spiraling fuel costs, record high new-vehicle prices and economic uncertainty could have caused retail sales to plummet. Instead, year-over-year retail sales volumes are in line with forecasts. In fact, fourth quarter retail sales are expected to be stronger than last year, bringing the full year result to nearly flat in 2026. How did the industry manage to navigate this tough set of market dynamics? This JD Power Automotive OEM Intelligence Report suggests shrewd supply chain management and segment mix, judicious use of incentives and a laser focus on moving the right vehicles off dealer lots were among the key success factors. Year-Over-Year Sales Return to Forecast Despite all the turmoil and obstacles this year has presented the auto industry, U.S. retail vehicle sales returned to the expected year-over-year trajectory this past month. The gap between the JD Power 2026 forecast, published in February, and actual performance was just 11,000 units, a scant 0.12%. Through the first eight months of this year, actual daily selling rate changes have closely tracked the forecast. Retail sales totaled 8.8 million units through August, down from 9.2 million during the same period in 2025. Smarter Segment Mix This year, OEMs have largely managed to maintain strong sales volumes by altering their segment mixes to achieve better profitability and mitigate tariff-related supply-chain issues. Notably, OEMs produced fewer compact SUVs while ratcheting up production of more profitable, domestically manufactured segments that have been less affected by tariffs. Large SUVs, large light-duty pickups, midsize SUVs and midsize cars all have recorded delivery gains. Charts and graphs extracted from this content for use by the media must be accompanied by a statement identifying JD Power as the publisher and the report from which it originated as the source. No advertising, commercial, or other promotional use can be made of the information in this content or JD Power results without the express prior written consent of JD Power. Mix Changes Spur Transaction Gains The “richer” vehicle mix has been a key contributor to the higher customer-facing transaction prices (CFTP) that have been recorded this year, which have increased from $45,344 through August 2025 to $46,098 through August 2026. The change in segment mix helped manufacturers charge an additional $172 per vehicle. While total consumer expenditure on new vehicles declined from $396.4 billion to $388.2 billion through August, the richer overall 2026 mix helped keep that decline relatively muted. Collectively, the richer 2026 mix added $1.4 billion and in-segment pricing increases added $6.9 billion to the overall expenditure, while new-vehicle buyers’ migration from premium brands to lower-priced nameplates deducted $2.0 billion from total spending. So, while lower unit sales volume has reduced total consumer expenditure, the combination of a richer product mix and higher in-segment pricing has offset a large portion of that decline. Charts and graphs extracted from this content for use by the media must be accompanied by a statement identifying JD Power as the publisher and the report from which it originated as the source. No advertising, commercial, or other promotional use can be made of the information in this content or JD Power results without the express prior written consent of JD Power. Tight Inventories in Select Segments The change in product mix has tightened available inventory in several smaller, fuel-efficient segments. While demand in those segments has remained strong, supply has not kept pace. For instance, compact-car supply fell from 52 days in January to just 36 days in August, while compact SUV supply dropped from 54 to 44 days in the same period. Hybrid vehicles have shown a similar pattern across all segments and models. Higher fuel prices have boosted demand for smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles while, at the same time, OEMs have reduced deliveries in those segments. Charts and graphs extracted from this content for use by the media must be accompanied by a statement identifying JD Power as the publisher and the report from which it originated as the source. No advertising, commercial, or other promotional use can be made of the information in this content or JD Power results without the express prior written consent of JD Power. Supply Constraints Grow for In-Demand Vehicles The significant change in vehicle mix versus previous years has created a bifurcated market. The retail share of individual models with fewer than 30 days of supply has jumped up markedly this year, hitting the 21-percent mark. For context, that number was 17% just last year, and in 2019 it was just 2%. At the other extreme, models with more than 120 days of supply account for 5% of sales in 2026, up from 3% in 2025. The result is a more polarized inventory picture, with an increasing share of highly constrained vehicles, particularly fuel-efficient models, alongside a modest increase in slow-moving models that are available in abundance. Charts and graphs extracted from this content for use by the media must be accompanied by a statement identifying JD Power as the publisher and the report from which it originated as the source. No advertising, commercial, or other promotional use can be made of the information in this content or JD Power results without the express prior written consent of JD Power. Incentives Kept Low What appears to be more strategic management of production and inventory has resulted in strong pricing and relatively low incentive spending. Average incentive spending per unit has increased from about $3,000 year-to-date in 2025 to $3,300 year-to-date in 2026. Forecasts suggest incentives will come in at roughly $3,500 for the full year, and the current pace is closer to $3,400. Despite the modest increase in incentive spending, customer-facing transaction prices have continued to climb. The 2025 average CFTP was about $45,500, and it has increased to $46,400 year-to-date in 2026. By year’s end it is likely to sit between $46,600 and $46,900. Overall, constrained supply in several high-demand segments is diminishing the need for vastly higher incentives while keeping overall pricing relatively firm even in the face of lower total unit sales. Charts and graphs extracted from this content for use by the media must be accompanied by a statement identifying JD Power as the publisher and the report from which it originated as the source. No advertising, commercial, or other promotional use can be made of the information in this content or JD Power results without the express prior written consent of JD Power. What Does the Future Hold? The industry has exercised extreme discipline, and it is paying off. Through August, retail sales were on par with annual forecasts. OEMs wisely altered their product mixes to mitigate supply-chain issues and to put greater emphasis on higher-margin models. The changes have driven transaction prices higher, with mix changes alone accounting for $170 of the increase. At the same time, higher supply in the lower-priced high-demand segments is lessening the need for costly incentive boosts. While expanded availability of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles would likely drive added unit sales, it is less clear if that would boost OEM profitability. For now, the car industry seems to be operating in a more disciplined manner than has been seen in decades. The major question is: Can it continue? So far, the industry has proven it is possible. For the past 18 months, overall new-vehicle inventory has held relatively steady in the 2.05 million to 2.2 million range, despite a highly volatile marketplace. Find Out More This Automotive OEM Intelligence Report is based on insights gathered from JD Power intelligence and proprietary market data. It was authored by Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of OEM customer success, and Srini Rajagopalan, vice president of OEM customer success at JD Power. Please contact us at the numbers below to learn more about the underlying research.

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