Preissicherheit und Finanzierungsleistung verbessern

Economic-impact events affecting Europe’s fleet and finance automotive industry have become more frequent Engaging in forecast scenario analysis rather than relying on a singular base case has become the new normal Absolute values of battery-electric vehicles sit above petrol powertrains in three major European used-car markets The fleet and finance industry faces a period of high uncertainty in Europe. Geopolitics and trade are increasingly strained, Chinese OEMs are rapidly expanding into the region, and major fleet suppliers are consolidating. Electrification in Europe remains uneven too. Proposed clean corporate vehicles regulation could introduce national zero- and low-emission registration targets for large companies. In this era of rapid change, the future is hard to predict. For fleets, this means adaptation and flexibility must be built into strategies. A major part of planning is maximizing money recovery when vehicles are de-fleeted. To do this effectively, residual value (RV) managers weave necessary levels of uncertainty into their forecast and optimize vehicle values at the remarketing point. Additionally, comparing forecasts to remarketing results and adapting accordingly is key. How can this be done effectively when the future looks so blurry? Furthermore, is the crystal ball brighter for some powertrains than others? These topics were discussed in detail during two sessions at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. Increasingly Frequent Crises “As an industry, we have become significantly more resilient over the past 10 years. For some, this came as a bit of a surprise, but a positive one,” commented Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director professional services at JD Power Europe & Australia. Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director professional services, JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. “Working through the more frequent crisis-moments that companies have endured, it gave them some strength and resilience. They are taking a more proactive stance, anticipating more and acting more decisively,” he outlined. Engelskirchen highlighted that economic-impact events affecting the automotive industry have become more frequent. Geopolitical and trade tensions, plus EV policy uncertainty, are causing fleets to adopt a more responsive and flexible mindset. This climate is not expected to change over the next couple of years. “We are getting used to accepting ups and downs as the new normal,” noted Engelskirchen. Differing Fleet Impact These crises have varying impacts on RVs. For example, in Spain, trade values expressed as a percentage of the original list price (%RVs) for 36-month-old cars at 60,000 km dropped dramatically during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Engelskirchen pointed out that during the COVID-19 pandemic, RVs rose across major European markets before entering a period of normalization. The impact of these events can differ substantially between powertrains too. Engelskirchen showed that in Spain, petrol’s bump in value retention rates during Dieselgate were bigger than diesel’s %RV decline. Analysing these outcomes can help when forecasting the impact of arising economic-impact events. “The past and current performance of used car markets remains a very important bellwether of future RV development. There are many different influencing factors for RVs, and some of these will have an impact that is very much informed by the past. For example, lifecycle depreciation and the role of the brand are factors that have been quantified and analysed for many years,” explained Engelskirchen. Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director professional services, JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. Additional definitive examples include GDP and inflation. If either rise, this generally causes RVs to increase. Conversely, if used-car supply, new-car price pressure, OEM push dynamics, or interest rates rise, RVs generally drop. Fleet Scenario Analysis So, with economic-impact event frequency higher than usual, tying forecasts to one set of assumptions could leave fleets vulnerable. Instead, having multiple forecast scenarios can help companies prepare for sudden market changes. These scenarios differ from base cases, which are the forecasts carrying the most confidence or probability behind them. “Scenario analysis needs breadth without losing relevance. Look too narrowly and you reinforce your existing worldview. Look too broadly and the scenarios become generic. The art is finding the right balance,” explained Engelskirchen. Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist and director professional services, JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. For example, a fleet could use an EV transition disruption scenario, which they associate with a moderate probability. In this situation, government and industrial policy becomes less supportive of EVs, while buyers and owners adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Compared to the base case, this scenario would have a positive impact on internal-combustion engines (ICE) and full and mild hybrids. However, it would have a negative impact on battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). “There is no limit to the number of scenarios a bank can have. However, scenarios that closely mirror the base case are less critical. More importantly, the exercise exposes vulnerabilities in the base-case forecast itself,” said Engelskirchen. “Scenario analysis is also very much influenced by the bank’s fleet portfolio risk profile. If a portfolio’s exposure is high, both number and type of scenarios they look at may differ,” added Christian Schneider, director analytics at JD Power Europe & Australia. Therefore, a fleet’s bespoke composition and affects which forecast scenarios will be relevant. For example, a fleet with a low share of electric models would be less concerned about a scenario that disrupts EV RVs. Fleet Powertrain Forecasts As companies make the electric transition at varying speeds, understanding how different powertrains are expected to retain value is important. This can help determine future fleet composition, replacement cycles, and risk allocation. During a panel at Fleet Europe Days 2026, Schneider analysed the projected absolute RVs of BEV and petrol C-segment SUVs. He explained that by December 2028, BEVs are expected to see higher values on average in this segment than petrol models in the big five European used-car markets. This widely aligns with current RV performance. In Germany, Spain and the UK, absolute BEV RVs sat above petrol models in October 2026, according to JD Power Residual Value Intelligence. In Italy, BEVs were marginally ahead by €135, while they trailed petrol cars in France by €1,497. Meanwhile, absolute PHEV RVs currently sit between BEVs and petrol models in most countries. “In terms of the outlook, we see PHEVs performing worse than BEVs. This is because they are currently pushed more in the bigger markets via incentives for fleets,” noted Schneider. Christian Schneider, director analytics at JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. Schneider also highlighted that Chinese OEMs have competitive technology and pricing in the PHEV sector. These models are not currently affected by the European Commission’s countervailing duties, which only apply to BEVs. However, the EU will limit the number of hybrids, including PHEVs, imported from China, The Guardian reported. The annual quota of 350,000 vehicles is expected to come into force in December. “Competition and vehicle capability are increasing substantially in the PHEV market. The powertrain type may receive a second wind on the back of better range and more affordable prices,” highlighted Engelskirchen. Powertrain Forecast Reliability Schneider analysed the forecast reliability of BEV RVs compared to petrol models. He outlined that for BEVs, knowing specifications such as battery chemistry, capacity, and charging times is essential for accurate BEV forecasts at a model and powertrain average level. Schneider also noted the importance of understanding how models and technology will change over the next few years. This can help show which launches add RV pressure on current vehicles and which do not. Christian Schneider, director analytics at JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. For mass market powertrains today, including BEVs and increasingly PHEVs, there is plenty of data to build solid forecasts. Challenges to current forecasts include the risk of changes in industrial policy around EVs plus the emerging competition in that space, particularly from China. In turn, EV forecasts are somewhat more exposed to these challenges. However, ICE and hybrid models are also interconnected and therefore affected by these challenges. AI and Fleet Forecasting During the panel, Schneider was asked about the overall reliability of RV forecasting compared to five years ago. He explained that forecasting models are now fed richer datasets and that the industry has learned a lot from recent crises. Looking five years into the future, the role of forecasting may also notably change. Christian Schneider, director analytics at JD Power Europe & Australia, presenting at the Fleet Europe Days 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal. “Most companies dealing with forecasting are aware that data is key and are collecting more of it. I think this points towards more reliable forecasts. On the other hand, economic-impact events are becoming more common. So, you need to be more prepared,” said Schneider. As companies become better equipped from a data perspective to prepare scenarios, the increasing capability of AI presents further opportunities. However, this also comes with inherent risks. “AI will play a bigger role in building statistical models. It could also help define forecast scenarios a little bit better. However, I think we must be careful, especially when we speak about completely AI-based forecasting models, that they do not get a black box. When a forecast turns out to be wrong, it is important to understand what exactly went into that forecast and which assumptions were used,” warned Schneider. Engelskirchen also emphasised the value of providing context for both current and forecast RVs even on an individual model trim level. This can be done by providing transparency around ongoing assumptions. Navigating the Never Normal Overall, fleets are now learning to navigate the “Never Normal”. This was a term coined by keynote speaker Peter Hinssen, who gave the event’s first presentation. Throughout the summit, the key theme of uncertainty remained. However, the takeaway was not that creating plans or forecasts are now redundant. Instead, strategy should be able to adapt quickly yet purposefully to disruptions. Understanding the assumptions underpinning base case forecasts and their reliability alongside multiple probable scenarios can help fleets thrive when the next change hits.

Explore what we learned about Europe’s LCV EV transition, including market trends, EV adoption, Chinese OEMs, residual values and downtime.

For the last few years, used-car markets across Europe have been under pressure, and the second half of 2026 is shaping up to be just as unpredictable. However, in this webinar, you’ll get a clear, data-backed view of where residual values are heading, and why. What’s Driving Europe’s Residual Value Movements in the Second Half of the Year? Behind every shift in used-car pricing is a web of macroeconomic pressures, supply-demand imbalances, and powertrain-level dynamics that are constantly evolving. In 2026, that complexity has only deepened.  Meanwhile, the UK used-car market, one of Europe’s largest and most distinctive, is following its own trajectory.  In this session, our valuations experts walk through the latest residual value forecasts, the macro forces behind the numbers, and what it all means for vehicle value retention across the markets you operate in.  VIEW THE ON DEMAND WEBINAR Meet our experts Hear directly from our specialists with hands-on experience across European used-car markets, residual value modelling, and automotive pricing forecasts Who This Webinar Is For This session is designed for automotive industry professionals whose work is directly shaped by used-car values, vehicle depreciation, and market pricing dynamics: Finance, insurance, and risk analysts   Fleet, leasing, and residual value managers   OEMs  Pricing and product managers   Portfolio and remarketing managers   Industry executives and business analysts   Key Takeaways A clear view of the European used-car market conditions: Understand depreciation pressures, supply dynamics, and demand signals determining vehicle value retention across key European markets.  The latest residual value forecasts, straight from the source: Get the most up-to-date RV projections and used-car pricing outlook, explained by the experts.  A focused look at the UK used-car market: Dig into one of Europe’s largest and most unique automotive markets, its depreciation trends, pricing dynamics, and what they signal for the broader region.  The market will remain uncertain for some. Yet, by watching this webinar, you can gain a sharper understanding of the forces shaping residual values and used-car price movements in the second half of 2026, and what they mean for the decisions you’re making right now.  Webinar Recap: What you missed The full webinar recap is now available. Watch the recording below. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTFCTM9QVnk

This content previously appeared on the Autovista24 website. How will new-car markets transform over the course of 2026? Plus, what is happening with used-car supply and demand in Europe? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus finds out in the latest Automotive Update podcast. In this episode, Autovista24 reviews the latest JD Power webinar, which explored Europe’s new-car outlook. Plus, a look into the latest residual value (RV) trends in the continent’s used-car market. Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music. Outlook for European automotive markets This week, JD Power hosted its latest webinar: Europe’s Auto Forecast 2026: Technology, Policy, and EV Adoption. The session covered Europe’s new-car market outlook from 2026 to 2040 across multiple powertrains. Panellists also delved into the bloc’s diverging electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the factors behind it. Plus, the webinar reviewed upcoming technologies and emerging brands expanding across the continent. Attendees were asked how much they thought Europe’s new-car market would grow, or shrink, by the end of this year. 40% of respondents expected a year-on-year improvement between 0% and 2% compared to 2025. This matched the latest EV Volumes forecast, which projected a 0.2% increase in its March update. However, this was reduced from the 1.5% growth forecast in its December report. The March update also projected overall growth for European light-vehicle sales, which includes new cars and light-commercial vehicles. In 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% is forecast, down from 1.7% in the previous report. The panel also discussed varying EV adoption rates in the bloc. They identified key structural differences that are either limiting or assisting plug-in uptake. Furthermore, the experts showed how, in some instances, EVs are closing the price gap to internal-combustion engine models. This comes as the choice of small EVs on the new-car market continues to widen. Positivity for used-car markets? JD Power experts forecast year-on-year RV declines across European used-car markets in the latest Monthly Market Update. In Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK, values are expected to decline by the end of 2026. However, these drops are expected to be slight. A drop is also projected across all observed markets in 2027. This is the case in 2028 as well, except for Italy, with marginal growth forecasted. RVs became inflated during the COVID-19 pandemic when supply was low, but demand was high. As these drivers balanced out, values underwent a period of normalisation. In March 2026, the active-market volume index (AMVI) for 24-to-48-month-old used cars showed year-on-year growth in every observed market. When compared to February 2026, only the UK suffered a marginal downturn, with a slight 1.1% dip in supply. The sales-volume index (SVI) of 24-to-48-month-old cars also increased compared with March 2025. This trend occurred in six of the seven observed markets, except for Italy, which recorded a 1.1% decline. Month-on-month results were more mixed, as single-digit drops were recorded in France, Italy and the UK. If supply continues to outpace demand, RVs will face increased pressure, with more units available and fewer potential buyers.