J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Forecast November 2014

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif.: 25 November 2014 — New-vehicle retail sales in November are expected to reach their highest level for the month since 2001, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

Retail Light-Vehicle Sales

New-vehicle retail sales in November 2014 are projected to come in at 1.1 million units, a 5.5 percent increase on a selling-day adjusted basis, compared with November 2013 (November 2014 has one fewer selling day than November 2013).

The retail seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in November is expected to reach 13.5 million units, 200,000 units stronger than in November 2013. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.

U.S. Retail SAAR—November 2013 to November 2014
(in millions of units)

Source: Power Information Network® (PIN) from J.D. Power

“The industry continues to demonstrate strong sales growth, which is exceptional considering that November is currently on pace to record the highest average customer-facing transaction prices ever,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power.

Through November 16, retail transaction prices are averaging $30,874, which is $165 more than the previous record of $30,709 in October 2014. Combined record transaction prices with strong new-vehicle retail sales has November on pace for a record month for consumer spending on new vehicle at $33.3 billion, which is $1.1 billion more than the previous record for the month of November set in 2013.

“Automakers will take advantage of the Thanksgiving holiday, one of the highest-volume holiday weekends of the year,” said Humphrey.

J.D. Power forecasts that more than 238,000 units will be sold over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, which would make it the second-highest-volume holiday weekend of 2014. Labor Day weekend typically tallies the most sales of the year, with 279,000 units sold in 2014.

Total Light-Vehicle Sales

Total light-vehicle sales are projected at 1.26 million units in November 2014, up 5 percent from November 2013. November is typically a low fleet month, with November 2014 expected to come in below 15 percent of total light vehicle sales with volume of 178,000 units.

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons

 

November 20141

October 2014

November 2013

New-Vehicle Retail Sales

1,077,600 units

(6% higher than November 2013)2

1,052,121 units

1,062,039 units

Total Vehicle Sales

1,255,600 units

(5% higher than November 2013)

1,278,629 units

1,242,668 units

Retail SAAR

13.5 million units

13.4 million units

13.3 million units

Total SAAR

16.5 million units

16.4 million units

16.2 million units

1Figures cited for November 2014 are forecasted based on the first 13 selling days of the month.

2The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days in the month (25 days in November 2014 vs. 26 days in November 2013).

Sales Outlook

As 2014 nears to a close, LMC Automotive is holding the 2014 U.S. light-vehicle retail sales forecast at 13.6 million units and total U.S. light-vehicle sales forecast at 16.4 million units.

Growth is currently expected to continue in 2015, but at a slower pace. The forecast for retail sales is for 13.9 million units, and total light-vehicle sales are expected to increase to 16.8 million units, both up 2 percent from 2014.

“The 2014 close is shaping up as expected with November looking like another strong performance,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. “Looking forward, downward pressure has given way to upside momentum, with a stronger economy, significant new model activity and low gas prices creating an opportunity for the light-vehicle market to hit 17 million units in 2015.”

North American Production

North American production through October is at 14.3 million units, a 5 percent increase from the same period in 2013. Vehicle inventory heading into November was at a 76-day supply, up from 64 days in September.LMC Automotive has increased the North American production forecast for 2014 to 16.9 million units from 16.8 million units, which is a 5 percent increase from the 16.2 million units in 2013. North American production in 2015 is expected to eclipse the 17 million-unit mark, with capacity utilization continuing to run at or above the 90 percent level.

About J.D. Power

J.D. Power is a global marketing information services company providing performance improvement, social media and customer satisfaction insights and solutions. The company’s quality and satisfaction measurements are based on responses from millions of consumers annually. Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power has offices in North/South America, Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information on car reviews and ratings, car insurance, health insurance, cell phone ratings, and more, please visit www.JDPower.com. J.D. Power is a business unit of McGraw Hill Financial.

About McGraw Hill Financial 

McGraw Hill Financial is a leading financial intelligence company providing the global capital and commodity markets with independent benchmarks, credit ratings, portfolio and enterprise risk solutions, and analytics. The Company's iconic brands include Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, S&P Capital IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Platts, CRISIL and J.D. Power. The Company has approximately 18,000 employees in 30 countries. Additional information is available at www.mhfi.com.

About LMC Automotive

LMC Automotive is the premier supplier of automotive forecasts and intelligence to an extensive client base of automotive manufacturer, component supplier, logistics and distribution companies, as well as financial and government institutions around the world. LMC’s global forecasting services encompass automotive sales, production and powertrain expertise, as well as advisory capability. LMC Automotive has locations in the United States, the UK, France, Germany, China Japan and Thailand and is part of the Oxford, UK-based LMC group, the global leader in economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness sector.  For more information please visit www.lmc-auto.com.

Media Relations Contacts

John Tews; J.D. Power; Troy, Mich.; 248-680-6218; media.relations@jdpa.com

Emmie Littlejohn; LMC Automotive; Troy, Mich.; 248-817-2100; elittlejohn@lmc-auto.com

No advertising or other promotional use can be made of the information in this release without the express prior written consent of J.D. Power or LMC Automotive. www.jdpower.com/corporate  www.lmc-auto.com

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New-Vehicle Retail Sales On Pace for 1.1 Million, the Strongest November Since 2001

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New-vehicle retail sales in November are expected to reach their highest level for the month since 2001, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

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New-Vehicle Retail Sales On Pace for 1.1 Million, the Strongest November Since 2001

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