Download the Industry Health Review to understand monthly sales and share performance, new model launches, and what's ahead for the industry, including:
1. Strong total and retail sales – despite storm Juno: best Jan total sales since 2001: +9.3% Y/Y to 1.15M and SAAR 16.6M, +1.4M.
• However, Y/Y comparisons may need extra care: While inclement weather was localized to the NE this January, comparisons to Jan’14 need to account for the “polar vortex”, which impacted a significantly larger portion of the country
2. The media didn’t report that fleet outpaced retail again: Retail sales grew a healthy 7.3% to 922K units (best since 2004), but fleet sales growth led industry for fourth consecutive month, growing 18.4% and accounting for 20% industry sales mix (+1.7ppts Y/Y)
3. January also posted record transaction prices and consumer expenditure: CFTP grew 3.0% to $30,707 (+$883) while consumer expenditure reached a Jan record $28.2 Billion (+$3.7B and +14.9% Y/Y) Note: expenditure has nearly doubled since Jan ’10 ($14.3B)
4. Incentive spending up again on year‐over‐year basis: Incentive spending grew $192 to $3,008/unit on higher lease costs, but still running near historical average of 8.6% of MSRP
5. Subprime growth slowing: Jan marked the 4th consecutive month of essentially flat Subprime mix (Y/Y), potential cap in appetite of lending institutions to serve this part of Auto market?
6. Gasoline remained in freefall and Americans flocked to Trucks & SUVs: January average prices fell $0.42 to $2.21/gallon, and Car mix fell to 43.7% of Industry, nearly 3ppts < Jan 2014. But first week of Feb shows upward movement in gasoline prices.
7. Winning / Losing Segments:
• Large Pickup gained share for fifth consecutive month, +0.6ppts to 11.9% of Industry and Midsize Pickups were +0.9ppts for a 57% increase of category’s footprint to 2.4% of industry (new GM p/ups). Compact SUVs were up +0.6ppts to 15.0% of industry.
• Nearly all car segments had Y/Y share decline, including critical Compact Car (‐1.6ppts) and Midsize Car (‐0.6ppts)
8. Premium segments continued to outperform rest of industry: Premium sales grew 10.3% (vs +6.8% non‐premium), pushing its industry retail share up 0.4ppts to 13.8%